How we plan to meet power demand
Demand and load forecasts are vital for reliable network planning. They predict future electricity use, guide infrastructure upgrades and ensure supply meets demand.
How forecasts are created
Forecasting models incorporate various factors and statistical models applied across various time scales and scenarios.
Factors considered
Forecasting models incorporate various factors and statistical models applied across various time scales and scenarios.
- Weather
Temperature, humidity and other variables impact electricity demand, particularly for heating and cooling.  - Season
Demand varies across seasons, with higher demand experienced during summer months through increased air conditioning use. - Day type
Weekdays, weekends and public holidays influence demand patterns. - Economic conditions
Population, industrial activity and economic growth can impact electricity demand. - Distributed Energy Resources (DER)
Increasing adoption of solar PV, electric vehicles and energy storage systems is influencing both peak demand and minimum demand.
Different time horizons
Forecasts are generated for different lengths of time, including:
- Short-term
Half-hourly or hourly forecasts for real-time operations and scheduling. - Medium-term
Daily or weekly forecasts for operational planning and resource allocation.  - Long-term
Annual forecasts for network planning, infrastructure investments and resource adequacy assessments.
Scenario assessments
Forecasters often develop multiple scenarios across different power demand loads (base, high, low) to assess changeable factors such as DER adoption, economic growth and weather patterns. 
Why forecasts are importantÂ
Developing accurate forecasts is essential in helping distributors and our industry partners for:
Network planning
To maintain adequate network capacity and prevent blackouts or brownouts
To maintain adequate network capacity and prevent blackouts or brownouts
Resource allocation
For optimised dispatch of generation and other resources
For optimised dispatch of generation and other resources
Grid stability
Keeping the balance between supply and demand to maintain reliable grid operation
Keeping the balance between supply and demand to maintain reliable grid operation
Investment planning
Guiding investment for network upgrades and expansions
Guiding investment for network upgrades and expansions
Demand management
Building strategies to manage peak demand as well as reduce overall consumption
Building strategies to manage peak demand as well as reduce overall consumption
Network planning
To maintain adequate network capacity and prevent blackouts or brownouts
To maintain adequate network capacity and prevent blackouts or brownouts
Resource allocation
For optimised dispatch of generation and other resources
For optimised dispatch of generation and other resources
Grid stability
Keeping the balance between supply and demand to maintain reliable grid operation
Keeping the balance between supply and demand to maintain reliable grid operation
Investment planning
Guiding investment for network upgrades and expansions
Guiding investment for network upgrades and expansions
Demand management
Building strategies to manage peak demand as well as reduce overall consumption
Building strategies to manage peak demand as well as reduce overall consumption
What our forecasting told us
Forecasting electricity demand and loads has helped us to prepare for and manage:
- An increase in areas prioritised for development by the NSW Government
- The Western Sydney Aerotropolis which is showing increased load growth from 2022
- A continuing focus on the redevelopment of existing areas, especially along rail corridors
- A number of large customer applications and connections in the Western Sydney area, particularly data centres
